How to read football betting odds
Updated 1 October 2026
Odds tell you two things at once: what a bet pays, and how likely the bookmaker thinks it is. Here's how to read both.
Decimal odds: what a bet pays
Decimal odds are the total return per unit staked, stake included. A $10 bet at 2.50 returns $25 if it wins — $15 profit plus your $10 back. At 1.40 the same $10 returns $14.
| Decimal odds | $10 stake returns | Profit | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.40 | $14.00 | $4.00 | 71.4% |
| 1.80 | $18.00 | $8.00 | 55.6% |
| 2.50 | $25.00 | $15.00 | 40.0% |
| 4.00 | $40.00 | $30.00 | 25.0% |
Implied probability
Divide 1 by the decimal odds to get the probability the price implies: 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%. Low odds mean the bookmaker rates the outcome likely; high odds mean unlikely.
The bookmaker's margin
Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market and you'll get more than 100%. For Home 2.10 / Draw 3.40 / Away 3.60: 47.6% + 29.4% + 27.8% = 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the bookmaker's margin (the overround) — it's how the bookmaker profits regardless of the result.
To strip it out, divide each implied probability by the total: 47.6 ÷ 1.048 ≈ 45.4% for the home win. Those margin-free numbers are the closest thing to the bookmaker's real estimate.
Converting fractional and American odds
Fractional odds show profit per stake: 6/4 means $6 profit per $4 staked. Add 1 to convert to decimal: 6 ÷ 4 + 1 = 2.50.
American odds use +/−. Positive odds show the profit on a $100 stake: +150 = 1 + 150 ÷ 100 = 2.50. Negative odds show the stake needed to win $100: −200 = 1 + 100 ÷ 200 = 1.50.
Odds, probability and our picks
Next to each pick we show our model's estimated probability and a market price. A pick is only worth a bet if you believe the true chance beats the implied one — and even then it loses some of the time. An 80% estimate still loses about 1 time in 5, which is why our track record lists every miss.
Frequently asked questions
What do odds of 2.00 mean?
A $10 stake returns $20 if it wins ($10 profit). Odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance.
How do I calculate implied probability?
Divide 1 by the decimal odds. Odds of 1.80 imply 1 ÷ 1.80 ≈ 55.6%.
Why do the implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?
Because the bookmaker builds in a margin (the overround). The amount above 100% is roughly the bookmaker's edge on that market.
18+. This guide explains how bets settle; it isn’t advice to bet. Settlement rules can differ between bookmakers — check yours. Gambling can be addictive: only stake what you can afford to lose.